#4 building One Belt One Road Industry, Jinshui District, Zhengzhou, China
“The future market for salmon is dominated by two countries, one is Chile and the other is China.”
Nordic Bank analyst Kolbjorn Giskeodegrd believes that the global salmon trade growth is driven by three factors, the first is the rapid rise of China's middle class, the second is the rapid growth of Chile's production, and the third is the major trans-Pacific logistics system. improve.
“Before 2018, there was never a direct flight from Chile to China. Now, there are several flights a week to Seoul, Beijing and Shanghai, thanks to the substantial increase in the overall trade volume between Chile and China.” Giskeodegrd said .
“The Chinese salmon consumption market has great potential. Chile is not the only supplier that values China. In 2017, the Norwegian Seafood Bureau set expectations on the Chinese market. In 2025, China’s market capacity will expand to 240,000 tons. ”
“If our estimates are not too different, China’s Atlantic salmon consumption will reach 150,000 tons in 2019. That is to say, the country’s market capacity has quadrupled in 10 years.” Giskeodegrd said, “about 10-20 globally.” The population of 100 million is middle class, most of them have never eaten salmon, but many people will eat some Japanese food in a year. The most important increase in consumption comes from the Asia-Pacific region."
The Nordic Bank estimates that in theory the global market can absorb 7.2% of salmon production without seriously affecting price stability. “In the past nine years, salmon supplies have increased by 1 million tons, equivalent to 70% of 2010 production. If the price is calculated in euros, the price of salmon has increased by 30%.”
“After solving many long-term problems, Chile’s salmon industry is currently at its best, while Norway’s growth has stagnated. Previously, Chilean salmon harvested smaller than European counterparts, and now has more specifications than Norway, close to the Faroe Islands. At the same time, Chilean salmon production costs were lower than Norway for the first time in 2018,” Giskeodegrd said.