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In June, China and the United States still have a turnaround, how should the cardamom go?

May has come to an end. This month, due to the renewed tension between China and the United States, the domestic soybean meal prices are generally higher than in April. However, can the June soybean meal market continue or replicate in May? Han Yu, an analyst with China National Cereals and Oils Information Network, believes that the June soybean meal market is not easy to be excessively bullish.

Leaders’ meetings have a negative effect
The Sino-US trade war has been deadlocked for a long time, and the United States has continuously "innovated" the restrictions on Huawei. However, in mid-May, the market rumors that at the G20 summit in late June, the top leaders of China and the United States will meet, and the author will use this to express his personal views.

First of all, the meeting between the top leaders of the two countries may result in negative domestic soybean meal prices. On November 30 last year, the Thirteenth Summit of the G20 leaders was held in Buenos Aires, Argentina. At this opportunity, the top leaders of China and the United States also exchanged views on Sino-US trade wars during the meeting. The idea, and at the time, the result of the meeting between the two leaders tended to reconcile the Sino-US trade war, which made the domestic market less bullish on the market for soybean meal, which led to the overall decline in the spot and futures of soybean meal. Then, the results of this meeting can also be used as a reference for the development of the meeting last year. The result of the meeting between the top leaders of China and the United States is dominated by the soybean meal market, or the negative impact.

In addition, in order to pave the way for the meeting between the leaders of the two countries, the frequency of trade negotiations and consultations between China and the United States will continue to increase in June. As we all know, in May, the United States suddenly added a new round of tariffs worth 200 billion Chinese goods to make China compromise. Since China and the United States still have more differences, short-term Sino-US trade relations are still difficult to break through, but it is necessary to pave the way for the meeting between the top leaders of the two countries. Therefore, the author believes that the short-term Sino-US trade negotiations are difficult to see. The progress of the improvement, then the negotiation process and the results will not bring negative or bullish effects on domestic soybean meal, and it is still a talk of the market after a meal.

Finally, the stalemate in the Sino-US trade war has not boosted the price of soybean meal. At this stage, imported soybeans are still dominated by Brazilian soybeans. Although the Sino-US trade war is once again tense, or the cost of Brazilian soybeans to Hong Kong has increased, most of the imported soybeans in May are orders in April and before, and the prices are low. In the short term, imports. The cost of soybeans is still low and cheap, and due to the high yield of soybeans in South America, it also drags down the growth momentum of Brazilian soybeans, which is difficult to boost the domestic soybean meal prices.

In short, the short-term speculation of Sino-US trade wars has come to an end, and the support for the big environment brought about by domestic soybean meal has been negligible. On the contrary, with the meeting of the top leaders of China and the United States, the number of Sino-US trade negotiations has been increasing, or the market has increased the bearish sentiment of the soybean meal market, which is not conducive to the strong spot price of domestic soybean meal.

Cardamom supply and demand pressure or gradually
In terms of domestic soybean meal, the author will start from two points of supply and demand, analyze the changes in the fundamentals of the domestic soybean meal market and the negative impact on soybean meal.

First, the supply of soybean meal will gradually become loose. In mid-May, the amount of domestically imported soybeans has been increasing, and the overall soybean stock pressure has gradually become more prominent. Although the domestic domestic soybean deposits are still low, the imported soybeans in June are expected to arrive at about 6 million tons, due to imported soybeans. The supply increase, as shown in the chart below, while the oil plant operating rate is gradually increasing, the domestic soybean meal supply continues to rise, and the domestic soybean meal spot price still has a negative impact.
turnaround
Second, the overall demand in the downstream market has slowed down. As shown in the chart below, since May 22, domestic soybean meal futures have fluctuated due to the end of Sino-US trade war speculation. In addition, the overall soybean meal stocks in the previous market were sufficient, resulting in a significant slowdown in the market for soybean meal, while short-term soybean meal prices did not. The main reason for the obvious correction is that the oil mills have not executed more contracts in the early stage, but will the market as a whole have a large and concentrated stocking of soybean meal in May? Everyone knows that there is no more, because since the beginning of April, the downstream market has been actively bullish stocking due to the increased demand for soybean meal in the aquaculture industry in June and beyond, which has led to a lot of abundance in aquaculture alone. At this stage, the downstream market has begun to focus on the digestive reserve, but the soybean meal has insufficient momentum.
cardamom go
Through the above two points, the domestic soybean meal market does not have the upward momentum, but the negative factors are more, but as the author said above, because the oil plant did not execute more contracts in the early stage, only the spot stocks of soybean oil in the coastal oil plants bottomed out, 6 Orders before the month have been sold out, and orders for soybean meal from July to September have also been partially sold, making the oil factory's willingness to pay more for soybean meal still obvious, and the down space of soybean meal may be limited.

In summary, the soybean meal market in June was met by the top leaders of China and the United States at the end of the month, and the fundamentals of domestic soybean meal will gradually shift from supply and demand to supply exceeding demand. The spot price of soybean meal may begin to show a steady decline. Don't want to dump a lot of goods, you still need to watch carefully. It is worth noting that due to the overall high price of domestic soybean meal at this stage, and the increasing cost of aquaculture, the terminal seeks to replace the low-cost miscellaneous, or the spot price of soybean meal will decline.

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