#4 building One Belt One Road Industry, Jinshui District, Zhengzhou, China
Since this year, food topics have been hot. When everyone is just beginning to struggle to achieve "fruit freedom," global food price changes have given people a new problem: Can we afford food?
The world's major food prices generally rose
Since mid-May, the world's major food prices have generally increased. Take the internationally most prestigious Chicago Commodity Exchange (CBOT) agricultural futures price as an example. The main contract of the US soybean futures 07 contract rebounded from the intraday low of 791 cents per bushel on May 13 and the intraday rebound on May 29. At the highest level, it rose to 892.6 cents per bushel, with the largest cumulative increase of 12.84%.
US soybean futures main contract 07 contract since November 2018
The main contract of the US wheat futures contract 07 also hit a new low of 418.4 cents per bushel on the same day (May 13), and then climbed all the way. On May 29, it hit a new high of 521.6 cents per bushel. The cumulative maximum increase was 24.67%. .
The main contract of the US wheat futures 07 contract since November 2018
The price trend of US corn futures was even stronger. The 07 contract also bottomed out on May 13th. The price rebounded from 343 cents per bushel to 438 cents per bushel. The cumulative maximum increase was 27.70%.
Corn futures main contract 07 contract since November 2018
Industry insiders pointed out that the recent high food prices are mainly due to poor weather conditions in the US crop producing areas. The US Department of Agriculture showed that the planting progress in the US Midwest crop production area lags behind the previous year's average.
Feed prices are rising
Domestically, in the recent period, while apple and red dates futures and other fruit futures have risen, food prices such as soybean meal and oil have quietly set off a "flag". On May 29th, domestic oil and fat futures collectively soared, and soybean meal, bean one, vegetable meal, and bean two were even set up to stop the "fast train." Although the sector has fallen sharply on the 30th, overall the trend of the staged bull market has not been destroyed.
Judging from the price of oil and fat products that the market is concerned about, the rise of related futures varieties began at the end of April. Taking soybean meal futures as an example, the main 1909 contract hit a new low of 2537 yuan/ton on April 30, and then embarked on a rising “departure”. On May 30, it hit a new high of 2985 yuan since September 17, 2018. In tons, the largest increase in the interval was 17.66%.
Zhang Hequan, an analyst of Meierya Futures Agricultural Products, said that the recent trend of soybean meal futures was strong, mainly due to three factors: First, macro-level concerns triggered domestic market panic, and the market worried that the supply side would tighten in the future; second, with the US market Soybean has been strong in recent times. Recently, the rainy weather in the United States and the muddy farmland have caused problems in the planting of crops in the Midwestern United States. The progress of soybean planting has lagged far behind that of the same period of the previous year. Third, the price of soybeans in South America has been rising. The cost end supports the continuous increase in the price of the company. “The trend of beans in the market is mainly determined by the macro-level trends and the weather and planting conditions in the soybean producing areas. Under the circumstances that the above factors have not improved, it is recommended to hold a strong shock to the soybean meal futures and do more on dips.”
Corn futures also maintained a high level of operation. The main contract of 1909 has accelerated since April. On May 20, it hit a new high of 2021 yuan/ton since November 20, 2018. It then maintained a high level of consolidation and recently operated around 2,000 yuan/ton. .
Some analysts have indicated that the main agricultural production areas in northern China are threatened by pests and diseases such as Spodoptera frugiperda, and they also form certain support for the prices of related agricultural products.
How can A shares be missed?
According to Wind data, as of noon on May 30, the biological breeding index and the soybean index increased by 2.45% and 2.34%, respectively. The increase was ranked in the top two of the 140 concept sector indices on the day, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.83%. In terms of constituent stocks, Fengle Seeds rose 6.79%, agricultural seed industry rose 3.94%, Peking University rose 2.33%, and Hakoco rose 1.55%.
According to industry insiders, the current northern hemisphere is in a critical period of sensitive weather, and any weather factor speculation is likely to cause an uproar in the agricultural product market.
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